Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $925,431$ on 2020-11-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,009,591.9}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 149.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,009,591.9\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $34,992$ on 2020-11-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,362.7}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 128.3)}}\) (asimptote \(35,362.7\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $39,769$ on 2020-11-11
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,747,660$ on 2020-11-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,755,833.6}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 143.5)}}\) (asimptote \(5,755,833.6\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $163,368$ on 2020-11-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{163,901.5}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 123.8)}}\) (asimptote \(163,901.5\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $361,355$ on 2020-11-11
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $524,804$ on 2020-11-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{480,790.6}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 113.6)}}\) (asimptote \(480,790.6\))
Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $14,633$ on 2020-11-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13,492.3}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 112.5)}}\) (asimptote \(13,492.3\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $8,745$ on 2020-11-11
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,273,356$ on 2020-11-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,681,586.9}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 205.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,681,586.9\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $34,531$ on 2020-11-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{48,786.5}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 205.6)}}\) (asimptote \(48,786.5\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $156,928$ on 2020-11-11
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $142,776$ on 2020-11-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{143,221.1}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 132.6)}}\) (asimptote \(143,221.1\))
Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,818$ on 2020-11-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,343.5}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 144.2)}}\) (asimptote \(9,343.5\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $18,240$ on 2020-11-11
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $176,630$ on 2020-11-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{203,033.5}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 158.8)}}\) (asimptote \(203,033.5\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $12,920$ on 2020-11-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{17,536.3}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 175.4)}}\) (asimptote \(17,536.3\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $8,754$ on 2020-11-11
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,165,326$ on 2020-11-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,168,485.1}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 168.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,168,485.1\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $33,312$ on 2020-11-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,726.2}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 149.9)}}\) (asimptote \(32,726.2\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $61,591$ on 2020-11-11
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $69,106$ on 2020-11-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{77,861.2}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 196.5)}}\) (asimptote \(77,861.2\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,532$ on 2020-11-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,659.2}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 192.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,659.2\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $18,029$ on 2020-11-11