Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• Asia
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in South America
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Peru
  • Brazil
  • Chile
  • Argentina
  • Bolivia
  • Ecuador
  • Colombia
  • Paraguay
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Venezuela

Analysis of the most affected countries in South America⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Peru⮸

Population $32,971,854$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $925,431$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,009,591.9}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 149.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,009,591.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $34,992$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,362.7}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 128.3)}}\) (asimptote \(35,362.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $39,769$ on 2020-11-11

Brazil⮸

Population $212,559,417$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,747,660$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,755,833.6}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 143.5)}}\) (asimptote \(5,755,833.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $163,368$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{163,901.5}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 123.8)}}\) (asimptote \(163,901.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $361,355$ on 2020-11-11

Chile⮸

Population $19,116,201$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $524,804$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{480,790.6}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 113.6)}}\) (asimptote \(480,790.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $14,633$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13,492.3}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 112.5)}}\) (asimptote \(13,492.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,745$ on 2020-11-11

Argentina⮸

Population $45,195,774$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,273,356$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,681,586.9}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 205.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,681,586.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $34,531$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{48,786.5}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 205.6)}}\) (asimptote \(48,786.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $156,928$ on 2020-11-11

Bolivia⮸

Population $11,673,021$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $142,776$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{143,221.1}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 132.6)}}\) (asimptote \(143,221.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,818$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,343.5}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 144.2)}}\) (asimptote \(9,343.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $18,240$ on 2020-11-11

Ecuador⮸

Population $17,643,054$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $176,630$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{203,033.5}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 158.8)}}\) (asimptote \(203,033.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $12,920$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{17,536.3}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 175.4)}}\) (asimptote \(17,536.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,754$ on 2020-11-11

Colombia⮸

Population $50,882,891$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,165,326$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,168,485.1}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 168.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,168,485.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $33,312$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,726.2}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 149.9)}}\) (asimptote \(32,726.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $61,591$ on 2020-11-11

Paraguay⮸

Population $7,132,538$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $69,106$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{77,861.2}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 196.5)}}\) (asimptote \(77,861.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,532$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,659.2}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 192.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,659.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $18,029$ on 2020-11-11

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Chile recovered 89%
Bolivia recovered 70%
Venezuela recovered 66%
Argentina recovered 10%
Paraguay recovered 5%

Venezuela⮸

Population $28,435,940$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $95,750$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{99,627.7}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 170.7)}}\) (asimptote \(99,627.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $838$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{903.4}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 163.2)}}\) (asimptote \(903.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,169$ on 2020-11-11